Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic
Identifieur interne : 000751 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000750; suivant : 000752Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic
Auteurs : Mary Mahy [Suisse] ; Jesus Maria Garcia-Calleja [Suisse] ; Kimberly Anne Marsh [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Sexually Transmitted Infections [ 1368-4973 ] ; 2012-12.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- geographic : Botswana, Éthiopie, Malawi, Mozambique, Ouganda, Zambie, Zimbabwe.
- topic : Garde à vue.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adult incidence, Ancs, Antenatal, Antenatal clinic, Antenatal clinics, Antiretroviral therapy, Attendee, Available data, Blood spots, Botswana, Burkina faso, Central african republic, Different methods, Ethiopia, Exponential curve, Fertility patterns, General population, Generalised, Generalised epidemic countries, Generalised epidemics, Hallett, Household survey respondents, Household surveys, Incidence, Incidence curve, Incidence trends, Malawi, Measure trends, Modelled, Modelled adult, Modelled adult incidence, Modelled estimates, Modelled incidence, Mozambique, Participation bias, Percent change, Percentage points, Plo, Pmtct, Policy department, Potential biases, Pregnant women, Prevalence, Prevalence data, Prevalence estimates, Proportional change, Proxy measure, Proxy measures, Recent infection, Representative household survey respondents, Representative household surveys, Rural areas, Sentinel surveillance, Sexual behaviour, Spectrum projection package, Supplement figure, Surveillance, Surveillance data, Survey data, Survey years, Transm, Uganda, Unaids, Uncertainty bounds, Various years, Vertical transmission, World health organization, Young people, Young survey respondents, Young women, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
- Teeft :
- Adult incidence, Ancs, Antenatal, Antenatal clinic, Antenatal clinics, Antiretroviral therapy, Attendee, Available data, Blood spots, Botswana, Burkina faso, Central african republic, Different methods, Ethiopia, Exponential curve, Fertility patterns, General population, Generalised, Generalised epidemic countries, Generalised epidemics, Hallett, Household survey respondents, Household surveys, Incidence, Incidence curve, Incidence trends, Malawi, Measure trends, Modelled, Modelled adult, Modelled adult incidence, Modelled estimates, Modelled incidence, Mozambique, Participation bias, Percent change, Percentage points, Plo, Pmtct, Policy department, Potential biases, Pregnant women, Prevalence, Prevalence data, Prevalence estimates, Proportional change, Proxy measure, Proxy measures, Recent infection, Representative household survey respondents, Representative household surveys, Rural areas, Sentinel surveillance, Sexual behaviour, Spectrum projection package, Supplement figure, Surveillance, Surveillance data, Survey data, Survey years, Transm, Uganda, Unaids, Uncertainty bounds, Various years, Vertical transmission, World health organization, Young people, Young survey respondents, Young women, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Abstract
Background Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15–24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV. Methods Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15–49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries. The significance of changes in prevalence among ANC attendees and young survey respondents is tested. Results Among 26 countries, 25 had evidence of some decline in HIV incidence and 15 showed statistically significant declines in either ANC data or survey data. Only in Mozambique did the direction of the trend in young ANC attendees differ from modelled adult incidence, and in Mali and Zambia trends among young men differed from trends in adult incidence. The magnitude of change differed by method. Conclusions Trends in HIV prevalence among young people show encouraging declines. Changes in fertility patterns, HIV-infected children surviving to adulthood, and participation bias could affect future proxy measures of incidence trends.
Url:
DOI: 10.1136/sextrans-2012-050789
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult incidence</term>
<term>Ancs</term>
<term>Antenatal</term>
<term>Antenatal clinic</term>
<term>Antenatal clinics</term>
<term>Antiretroviral therapy</term>
<term>Attendee</term>
<term>Available data</term>
<term>Blood spots</term>
<term>Botswana</term>
<term>Burkina faso</term>
<term>Central african republic</term>
<term>Different methods</term>
<term>Ethiopia</term>
<term>Exponential curve</term>
<term>Fertility patterns</term>
<term>General population</term>
<term>Generalised</term>
<term>Generalised epidemic countries</term>
<term>Generalised epidemics</term>
<term>Hallett</term>
<term>Household survey respondents</term>
<term>Household surveys</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Incidence curve</term>
<term>Incidence trends</term>
<term>Malawi</term>
<term>Measure trends</term>
<term>Modelled</term>
<term>Modelled adult</term>
<term>Modelled adult incidence</term>
<term>Modelled estimates</term>
<term>Modelled incidence</term>
<term>Mozambique</term>
<term>Participation bias</term>
<term>Percent change</term>
<term>Percentage points</term>
<term>Plo</term>
<term>Pmtct</term>
<term>Policy department</term>
<term>Potential biases</term>
<term>Pregnant women</term>
<term>Prevalence</term>
<term>Prevalence data</term>
<term>Prevalence estimates</term>
<term>Proportional change</term>
<term>Proxy measure</term>
<term>Proxy measures</term>
<term>Recent infection</term>
<term>Representative household survey respondents</term>
<term>Representative household surveys</term>
<term>Rural areas</term>
<term>Sentinel surveillance</term>
<term>Sexual behaviour</term>
<term>Spectrum projection package</term>
<term>Supplement figure</term>
<term>Surveillance</term>
<term>Surveillance data</term>
<term>Survey data</term>
<term>Survey years</term>
<term>Transm</term>
<term>Uganda</term>
<term>Unaids</term>
<term>Uncertainty bounds</term>
<term>Various years</term>
<term>Vertical transmission</term>
<term>World health organization</term>
<term>Young people</term>
<term>Young survey respondents</term>
<term>Young women</term>
<term>Zambia</term>
<term>Zimbabwe</term>
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<term>Ancs</term>
<term>Antenatal</term>
<term>Antenatal clinic</term>
<term>Antenatal clinics</term>
<term>Antiretroviral therapy</term>
<term>Attendee</term>
<term>Available data</term>
<term>Blood spots</term>
<term>Botswana</term>
<term>Burkina faso</term>
<term>Central african republic</term>
<term>Different methods</term>
<term>Ethiopia</term>
<term>Exponential curve</term>
<term>Fertility patterns</term>
<term>General population</term>
<term>Generalised</term>
<term>Generalised epidemic countries</term>
<term>Generalised epidemics</term>
<term>Hallett</term>
<term>Household survey respondents</term>
<term>Household surveys</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Incidence curve</term>
<term>Incidence trends</term>
<term>Malawi</term>
<term>Measure trends</term>
<term>Modelled</term>
<term>Modelled adult</term>
<term>Modelled adult incidence</term>
<term>Modelled estimates</term>
<term>Modelled incidence</term>
<term>Mozambique</term>
<term>Participation bias</term>
<term>Percent change</term>
<term>Percentage points</term>
<term>Plo</term>
<term>Pmtct</term>
<term>Policy department</term>
<term>Potential biases</term>
<term>Pregnant women</term>
<term>Prevalence</term>
<term>Prevalence data</term>
<term>Prevalence estimates</term>
<term>Proportional change</term>
<term>Proxy measure</term>
<term>Proxy measures</term>
<term>Recent infection</term>
<term>Representative household survey respondents</term>
<term>Representative household surveys</term>
<term>Rural areas</term>
<term>Sentinel surveillance</term>
<term>Sexual behaviour</term>
<term>Spectrum projection package</term>
<term>Supplement figure</term>
<term>Surveillance</term>
<term>Surveillance data</term>
<term>Survey data</term>
<term>Survey years</term>
<term>Transm</term>
<term>Uganda</term>
<term>Unaids</term>
<term>Uncertainty bounds</term>
<term>Various years</term>
<term>Vertical transmission</term>
<term>World health organization</term>
<term>Young people</term>
<term>Young survey respondents</term>
<term>Young women</term>
<term>Zambia</term>
<term>Zimbabwe</term>
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<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Botswana</term>
<term>Éthiopie</term>
<term>Malawi</term>
<term>Mozambique</term>
<term>Ouganda</term>
<term>Zambie</term>
<term>Zimbabwe</term>
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<front><div type="abstract">Background Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15–24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV. Methods Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15–49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries. The significance of changes in prevalence among ANC attendees and young survey respondents is tested. Results Among 26 countries, 25 had evidence of some decline in HIV incidence and 15 showed statistically significant declines in either ANC data or survey data. Only in Mozambique did the direction of the trend in young ANC attendees differ from modelled adult incidence, and in Mali and Zambia trends among young men differed from trends in adult incidence. The magnitude of change differed by method. Conclusions Trends in HIV prevalence among young people show encouraging declines. Changes in fertility patterns, HIV-infected children surviving to adulthood, and participation bias could affect future proxy measures of incidence trends.</div>
</front>
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<country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Marsh, Kimberly Anne" sort="Marsh, Kimberly Anne" uniqKey="Marsh K" first="Kimberly Anne" last="Marsh">Kimberly Anne Marsh</name>
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